Barclays bets on lead, warns for lower zinc prices
Researchers at the Barclays Capital Commodities, a branch of the Barclays Group, forecasted this week "there is a clear fundamental signal for even higher prices" for some metal commodities while downgraded price expectations for other ones. Precious metals will keep taking center stage, as the analysts believe the excessive supply and fears of inflation will push prices to both sides.
Copper and lead are the big bets at Barclays, believing that copper output "is likely to struggle" and would not be enough with "even a modest rate of demand growth". The same is said about lead, whose output could be tight between 2010 and 2011, pushing prices up.
On the other hand, the researchers believe the scenario for aluminum prices will be influenced by the "excessive smelting capacity", while nickel prices will oscillate more wildly and are likely to fall in the second half of 2010. However, Barclays bet on a possible failure at the Vale's Goro mine in New Caledonia, which cold tight supplies in 2011 and boost prices.
The research is skeptical about zinc in the coming years, believing that the recent fast pace of growth cannot be sustained in the long term.
Publicado em: 20/7/2010 22:42:00
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